No, the Medicare budget is NOT safe

The GOP Reconciliation bill: Worse than a poison pill

I’m sure you’re aware that the House of Representatives passed its hotly contested budget reconciliation bill last week, in the wee hours of the morning, with a one-vote lead (seriously: it was 214 nays, 215 yays). 

Maybe you’re in favor of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Maybe not. I’m not here to argue with you either way. 

I just want you to know what else this bill will do.

Because if you’re on Medicare, or hope to be, or have loved ones who are, this bill in its current form will trigger huge cuts. To Medicare.

You read that right. MediCARE.

And very few mainstream media news outlets, with the exception of WaPo and MSNBC, have even mentioned this.

But that can’t be, you may be thinking. The President, his administration, and just about every GOP elected official have sworn up and down they will always protect Medicare. 

You may have scanned the provisions of the reconciliation bill. They don’t say anything about cuts to Medicare.

But the literal text of the bill is very different from its practical effects. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office notes that the bill would add enough billions to the national deficit to force cuts of nearly $500 billion to Medicare. Some of those cuts, about $45 billion, could come as early as 2026. 

This is because of a 2010 federal budget rule that the bill’s proponents are also not talking about: PAYGO, or Pay As You Go. 

Basically, PAYGO stipulates that tax cuts and mandatory spending increases must be offset (i.e., “paid for”) by tax increases or cuts in mandatory spending. 

The CBO, in its May 20 letter to a ranking member of the House Committee on the Budget, explains in detail the consequences for Medicare if the One Big Beautiful Bill becomes law. Here are some of the letter’s pertinent highlights:

Under S-PAYGO, reductions in Medicare spending are limited to 4 percent — or an estimated $45 billion for fiscal year 2026 . . . (after 2026) the ordered reductions in Medicare spending would increase to about $75 billion in 2034 and would total roughly $490 billion over the 2027–2034 period.”

So while the GOP bill doesn’t say anything about cuts to Medicare, it will slash the Medicare budget. 

But — and here’s the hope — the bill has to pass the Senate first. The Senate is almost certain to tinker with it, in which case it will go back to the House, who would have to agree on it all over again before it goes to the President’s desk. 

What they will all avoid like the plague is talking about what the bill does to Medicare — because they think their constituents don’t know or care.

That’s where we come in. That’s what we have the power to change.

If you have a GOP senator or Congressman, now — and I mean right now — is the time to get on the horn (Boomer for phone) and give them a call. Tell them that you know that this bill adds enough to the deficit that it WILL slash the Medicare budget; you know it, and they need to know you know it. And you’re not happy about it, and you won’t be happy with them if they vote for it.

Doing this is surprisingly easy, and it takes about five minutes. If you’re not used to calling your members of Congress, click here to find out how. 

Need a prompt? You can say something like this:

“Hi, I’m a constituent (name & address), and I want the (Senator/Congressman) to know that I am aware that the GOP reconciliation bill would raise the deficit enough to trigger nearly $500 billion in cuts to Medicare over the next ten years. This is a betrayal of your constituents’ trust. Vote no.”

Don’t worry, you won’t have to face down the actual politician. You’ll either talk to a staffer or leave a voice mail. Be sure to leave your mailing address or at least your zip code so they know you’re from their state or district; that way your opinion gets recorded.

Taking your call is literally their job. And believe me, they care about your opinion. They figure if you care enough to call them to express your opinion on an issue, there are another thousand of their constituents who feel the same way.

I am not someone who likes to tell other people what they should do. But if you want to save Medicare, you should do this.

No matter what happens, you’ll know you’ve done what you could.